DGHI Director Muses about the Future of Global Health

Deka_Readers

Community health workers in Kenya use special readers that have been programmed to give immediate feedback on the quality of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria. According to Merson, technology will be critical to the future of global health.

Published October 25, 2016, last updated on June 3, 2020

Duke Global Health Institute (DGHI) director Michael Merson imagines a future where self-driving cars do more than allow passengers to watch Netflix behind the wheel. To Merson, who has worked in global health for 50 years, this technology has the potential to extend life expectancy worldwide, allowing elderly people the freedom to get around with less risk of falls.

Over the course of his career, Merson has seen scientific advancements revolutionize healthcare in ways that seemed far-fetched—even impossible—just decades ago, watching as the medical community completed its first open heart surgery, eradicated smallpox and cloned its first mammal.

“How many of these advancements would have been predicted 50 years ago?” Merson said during a recent talk at DGHI. “None of them.”

Nonetheless, as Merson and other leading medical professionals prepare to make healthcare recommendations to a new United States president, they must try to predict what life on earth will look like over the next half century.

 
 

 

Merson and other researchers estimate that by 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left. Those who remain in poverty will have unprecedented access to healthcare via cell phones, which will soon be capable of drawing and analyzing blood and returning lab results within minutes.

In the years to come, Merson said, we will continue to change the way we treat and think about diseases. At Duke, researchers are studying how the poliovirus can be used to combat brain cancer, and faculty members are addressing both the treatment and stigma of mental health disorders—only a few of the areas where Merson believes we can expect significant medical developments in the coming years.

But the future of human health is not without challenges. Because of a growing global population, Merson said, we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000.

He also predicted that as global climate change causes increased precipitation worldwide, mosquito-borne illnesses will spread to previously unaffected areas, and new infections will emerge.

“There are a lot of problems that need to be addressed, but I’m not sure the world is ready for it,” he said. “A lot of the changes that we need to make are policy-based, and that requires incredibly strong, brave leadership. Who’s leading [global health governance]? And where is the United States on this? That’s a really critical question.”

While these questions may go unanswered, Merson emphasized that higher education remains a bright spot in the future of global health, providing innovative solutions to existing and emerging health issues.

“Duke is on the front lines of innovation, cancer research, food security and many other areas that will be critical to human health over the next 50 years,” he said following his talk. In the coming weeks, he plans to share his predictions with classes of young global health students at Duke—a new generation of leaders whose efforts will shape the future of human health.

This article was adapted from an article originally published on the Duke Global website

Because of a growing global population, we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000.